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In the future, they say, movie theaters will begin offering tiered ticket prices very much the same way tickets are sold on Broadway. George Lucas and Steven Spielberg recently made this prediction, and it sounds true to me. Indie films will move online, art houses will be smaller and smaller businesses, and the notion of obscurity will become all the more sharply contrasted with the mainstream. Smaller films – at least the ones that are theatrically released – will continue to wane, and well-moneyed supra-movies will be all that is available. The only thing that can hinder this current model is a string of bombs for multiple studios in a short span of time. One $300 million film that will make a billion, rather than 10 $20 million films that will make $40 million apiece. The best marketplace is for very expensive movies that are intended to make even more money. The days of mid-budget studio films is on the wane, and doesn’t look to be picking up traction. Studios, as has been said by many pundits in the past, are no longer making numerous small risks. I predict that blockbusters will continue on the current trend of high-risk, high-return for at least another 15 years. Oh sure, there will always be the occasional sleeper hit that didn’t cost much to make, but ends up making huge amounts of money anyway, but those films, by definition, won’t be the planned blockbusters. The Blockbuster of the Future will run at least 190 minutes.Ĭheapies are a thing of the past. And that simply cannot be done in an hour and a half. If the average citizen can marathon through an entire season of television in the course of a day, then movies need to match that length and incident. What’s more, films need to constantly complete with the changing state of home entertainment consumption. Given that the last Transformers film and the latest Avengers film will be about 165 minutes each, it seems that future blockbusters will only bloat. The need for spectacle now has studios meeting a greater audience demand for more and more content. No would-be blockbuster these days would dare run under 120 minutes or so, and many are happy to run over 150. The biggest blockbusters of the last decade run an average of about 130 minutes. But there is a vague consensus that sounds correct: The average length of movies has been steadily rising since the 1930s, when average movie length was closer to 100 minutes.

There have been multiple studies over the years about the average length of feature films, none of which have been wholly conclusive one would need to gauge the length of every single feature film to come up with good numbers, and that’s a near-impossible task. I will boldly slip into my Criswell jacket, and make the following predictions about the future of blockbuster entertainments.

Nevertheless, it is a valuable (not to mention entertaining) cognitive exercise to contemplate what the future of movies may hold. What’s more, the technology of film is constantly changing in ways we can’t predict, making for aesthetic and financial mutations to the film industry one could never see coming. Trend arise that no one could have possibly imagined, and genres come to the forefront that hadn’t been seen before. The future of blockbuster entertainments is a difficult and dodgy thing to predict. But I imagine most audiences will eventually tire of the tropes. I mean it has to, right? This can’t possibly last for another whole decade, can it? Well, ask any superhero fan, and they’re in it for the long game. And while the superhero trend is indeed currently riding the crest of its wave – I predict that The Avengers: Age of Ultron will make over $150 million its opening weekend in May – the trend must inevitably come to an end.